Fall Of Assad Puts Russia's Large Military Footprint In Syria At Risk
Fall of Assad Puts Russia's Large Military Footprint in Syria at Risk
With the Syrian civil war entering its eleventh year, the future of President Bashar al-Assad's regime remains uncertain. The conflict, which began as a peaceful uprising in 2011, has morphed into a complex proxy war involving numerous regional and international actors. Russia's military intervention in 2015 turned the tide of the war in Assad's favor, but it has also left Moscow with a significant military footprint in the country.
Russia's Military Presence in Syria
Russia has deployed a substantial military force in Syria, including ground troops, aircraft, and naval vessels. The Russian military has played a key role in supporting Assad's regime, providing air support, targeting rebel positions, and securing government-controlled areas. Russia has also established a number of military bases in Syria, including the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase.
The Risks to Russia's Military Presence
The fall of Assad would pose a significant risk to Russia's military presence in Syria. If Assad were to be overthrown, it is likely that his regime would be replaced by a new government that would be less friendly to Russia. A new government could demand that Russia withdraw its troops or close its military bases. Moreover, a post-Assad Syria could become a haven for anti-Russian groups, which could target Russian military personnel and installations.
There are a number of factors that could contribute to Assad's fall. The Syrian opposition, with the support of Turkey and other regional powers, has made significant gains in recent months. Moreover, the United States has announced that it will withdraw its troops from Syria, which could weaken Assad's position further. If Assad were to be overthrown, it would have a major impact on Russia's interests in the region.
Russia's Options
Russia has a number of options to reduce the risks to its military presence in Syria. One option is to increase its support for Assad, providing him with additional military assistance and economic aid. Another option is to negotiate with the Syrian opposition and other regional powers to find a political solution to the conflict that would protect Russia's interests. Finally, Russia could withdraw its troops from Syria, although this would likely be seen as a major defeat.
Conclusion
The fall of Assad would pose a significant risk to Russia's military presence in Syria. Russia has a number of options to reduce these risks, but it is unclear how it will proceed. The future of Russia's military presence in Syria will likely depend on the outcome of the ongoing conflict.
References
- [1] The New York Times. "Russia's Military Footprint in Syria at Risk if Assad Falls." https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/13/world/middleeast/russia-syria-assad.html
- [2] The Washington Post. "Russia's Military Presence in Syria: A Risk Assessment." https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russias-military- presence-in-syria-a-risk-assessment/2018/04/12/6616543a-3d70-11e8-933a- d0a178c3db01_story.html?utm_term=.70156a27f130
- [3] The International Crisis Group. "Russia's Military Intervention in Syria: Implications for the Conflict and Beyond." https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/russias-military-intervention-syria-implications-conflict-and-beyond